Document Type masters report Author Name Padhy, Budhinath URN etd-042811-171824 Title Bayesian Data Analysis For The Sovenian Plebiscite Degree MS Department Mathematical Sciences Advisors Prof. Balgobin Nandram, Advisor Keywords Bayesian Data Analysis Date of Presentation/Defense 2011-04-28 Availability unrestricted
Slovenia became an independent republic with its own constitution passed on December 23, 1991. The important step that led to the independence of Slovenia was the December 1990 plebiscite. It was at this plebiscite that the citizens of Slovenia voted for a sovereign and independent state. A public survey called Slovenian Public Opinion (SPO) survey was taken by the government of Slovenia for the plebiscite. The plebiscite counted `YES voters' only those voters who attended and who voted for independence. Non-voters were counted as `NO voters' and `Don't Know' survey responses that could be thought of as missing data that was treated as `YES' or `NO'. Analysis of survey data is done using non-parametric fitting procedure, Bayesian ignorable nonresponse model and Bayesian nonignorable nonresponse model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to the different values of a prior parameter. The amazing estimates of the eventual plebiscite outcome show the validity our underlying models.
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