Title page for ETD etd-042811-171824

Document Type masters report

Author Name Padhy, Budhinath

URN etd-042811-171824

Title Bayesian Data Analysis For The Sovenian Plebiscite

Degree MS

Department Mathematical Sciences

Advisors
Prof. Balgobin Nandram, Advisor

Keywords
Bayesian Data Analysis

Date of Presentation/Defense 2011-04-28

Availability unrestricted

Abstract
Slovenia became an independent republic with its own constitution passed on December 23, 1991. The important step that led to the independence of Slovenia was the December 1990 plebiscite. It was at this plebiscite that the citizens of Slovenia voted for a sovereign and independent state. A public survey called Slovenian Public Opinion (SPO) survey was taken by the government of Slovenia for the plebiscite. The plebiscite counted `YES voters' only those voters who attended and who voted for independence. Non-voters were counted as `NO voters' and `Don't Know' survey responses that could be thought of as missing data that was treated as `YES' or `NO'. Analysis of survey data is done using non-parametric fitting procedure, Bayesian ignorable nonresponse model and Bayesian nonignorable nonresponse model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to the different values of a prior parameter. The amazing estimates of the eventual plebiscite outcome show the validity our underlying models.

Files
MSProj-Rev3.pdf

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Document Type	masters report
Author Name	Padhy, Budhinath
URN	etd-042811-171824
Title	Bayesian Data Analysis For The Sovenian Plebiscite
Degree	MS
Department	Mathematical Sciences
Advisors	Prof. Balgobin Nandram, Advisor
Keywords	Bayesian Data Analysis
Date of Presentation/Defense	2011-04-28
Availability	unrestricted
Abstract Slovenia became an independent republic with its own constitution passed on December 23, 1991. The important step that led to the independence of Slovenia was the December 1990 plebiscite. It was at this plebiscite that the citizens of Slovenia voted for a sovereign and independent state. A public survey called Slovenian Public Opinion (SPO) survey was taken by the government of Slovenia for the plebiscite. The plebiscite counted `YES voters' only those voters who attended and who voted for independence. Non-voters were counted as `NO voters' and `Don't Know' survey responses that could be thought of as missing data that was treated as `YES' or `NO'. Analysis of survey data is done using non-parametric fitting procedure, Bayesian ignorable nonresponse model and Bayesian nonignorable nonresponse model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to the different values of a prior parameter. The amazing estimates of the eventual plebiscite outcome show the validity our underlying models.
Files	MSProj-Rev3.pdf