Title page for ETD etd-050505-154305

Document Type	thesis
Author Name	Hallinan, Shawn E.
URN	etd-050505-154305
Title	Paired Comparison Models for Ranking National Soccer Teams
Degree	MS
Department	Mathematical Sciences
Advisors	Andrew W. Swift, Advisor
Keywords	bradley - terry paired comparison bayesian statistics
Date of Presentation/Defense	2005-05-05
Availability	unrestricted
Abstract National soccer teams are currently ranked by soccer’s governing body, the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA). Although the system used by FIFA is thorough, taking into account many different factors, many of the weights used in the system’s calculations are somewhat arbitrary. It is investigated here how the use of a statistical model might better compare the teams for ranking purposes. By treating each game played as a pairwise comparison experiment and by using the Bradley-Terry model as a starting point some suitable models are presented. A key component of the final model introduced here its ability to differentiate between friendly matches and competitive matches when determining the impact of a match on a teams ranking. Posterior distributions of the rating parameters are obtained, and the rankings and results obtained from each model are compared to FIFA’s rankings and each other.
Files	shawnhal.pdf

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