Document Type masters report Author Name Chase, Tyler A. URN etd-043009-162154 Title Minimizing the Probability of Ruin in Exchange Rate Markets Degree MS Department Mathematical Sciences Advisors Hasanjan Sayit, Advisor Keywords stochastic optimal control optimal investment stochastic calculus Date of Presentation/Defense 2009-04-30 Availability unrestricted
The goal of this paper is to extend the results of Bayraktar and Young (2006) on minimizing an individual's probability of lifetime ruin; i.e. the probability that the individual goes bankrupt before dying. We consider a scenario in which the individual is allowed to invest in both a domestic bank account and a foreign bank account, with the exchange rate between the two currencies being modeled by geometric Brownian motion. Additionally, we impose the restriction that the individual is not allowed to borrow money, and assume that the individual's wealth is consumed at a constant rate. We derive formulas for the minimum probability of ruin as well as the individual's optimal investment strategy. We also give a few numerical examples to illustrate these results.
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